Predicting The Shows That Will Flop In 2024

Predicting which television shows will hit and which will flop is a little like making accurate predictions about the weather. You can consult all the statistical information that's available, note trends and industry observations, and make opinions based on the cast and producers' previous efforts, but at the end of the day, it's all guesswork — that, and audience whims, and network schedules, of course. The history of network television is littered with series that should have been hits, but died on the vine early due to any number of reasons, many of which were, well, really foolish.

However, some shows tip their hands when it comes to determining their survival rate: the premise is wonky, the format is played out, or the leads aren't a draw. Again, it's guesswork: plenty of formulaic shows enjoy long lives on TV, while fresh, original programming withers away. Following is a list of 2024 series that might not survive the season, based on any number of different factors. 

Is it a good sign that Fox announced the series order for "Grimsburg," an animated comedy starring Jon Hamm, in 2021, but delayed the actual premiere until January 2024? To quote the Magic 8 Ball, "reply hazy, ask again." Hamm, who also serves as executive producer for "Grimsburg," voices world-weary Detective Marvin Flute, who returns to the titular town to win back his job and his deeply dysfunctional family. Fox screened an episode at New York Comic-Con in 2023, while also unveiling a promo spot that provides a thumbnail of the series' tone.

Judging from the promo, "Grimsburg" is in line with other animated series produced by Bento Box Entertainment – rapid-fire humor, neurotic family dynamics, a little racy, a little surreal. Bento has scored with this formula in series like "Bob's Burgers" and "The Great North," but for every hit, there are at least two other series that have generated less positive responses ("Krapopolis," "Duncanville") and outright flops ("The Prince," "Housebroken," "Bordertown"). Despite the presence of Hamm and a talented voice cast that includes Erinn Hayes and Rachel Dratch, there's no sure sign that "Grimsburg" will earn Bento another success.

One of the CW's two scripted series pickups from Canada (the other being "Sight Unseen"), "Wild Cards" pairs attractive performers with nominal recognition in hopes that they'll distract viewers from the well-worn premise. "Riverdale" star Vanessa Morgan is the street-savvy con woman whose latest scam lands her in jail; Italian actor Giacomo Gianniotti from "Grey's Anatomy" is the tough cop whose uncompromising attitude has earned him a demotion. Will this down-on-their-luck pair team up to solve crimes and possibly redeem their reputations? And do sparks fly every time they meet?

Yes, of course they do. "Wild Cards" clings tightly to venerable tropes — opposites attract, it takes a thief to solve crimes, and so on — which have fueled countless series (see "Moonlighting," "Scorpion," etc.) Unfortunately, those storylines aren't always successful, as 2016's "The Catch" clearly illustrated: not even the combined appeal and good will of Shonda Rhymes, Peter Krause, and Mireille Enos could save that from cancellation after a single season. "Wild Cards" doesn't have any of those factors, despite the pulchritude of its leads and some production polish.

Based on the novel "The Never Game" by Jeffrey Deaver, the CBS series "Tracker" stars Justin Hartley as a "lone-wolf survivalist" (the network's words) who helps individuals and law enforcement find missing persons with his nuclear-strength tracking skills. In addition to Hartley — starring in his first series since "This Is Us" — "Tracker" also features top-notch support from Oscar nominee Mary McDonnell ("Major Crimes"), Emmy nominee Robin Weigert ("Deadwood") and character actor Lee Tergesen ("Oz").

But the missing persons angle is already covered this season by "Found" and in previous seasons by such well-crafted dramas and comedies as "Search Party" and "Without a Trace." The "lone wolf" element sets "Tracker" apart from those shows (as does the cast), but the idea of a crusading individualist crisscrossing the country to help others suggests "Reacher" without all the bone-crushing and neck-snapping (which, admittedly, helps to sell that show). It also brings up much better series ("The Fugitive") and more dated ones as well ("Highway to Heaven," for crying out loud). "Tracker" is going to need every ounce of Hartley's inherent likability to find its way in the new season.

"Elsbeth" feels like a toss-up in terms of ratings success. It's the latest title in Robert and Michelle King's "Good Wife" franchise of legal dramas, and elevates Emmy winner Carrie Preston's cagey lawyer Elsbeth Tascioni from recurring character on "The Good Fight" to center stage in her own legal series. The Kings, who serve as creators, writers, and directors on "Elsbeth," have paired her with Wendell Pierce from "Jack Ryan," who plays her equal and probable foil in the New York Police Department. On paper, "Elsbeth" could go the same distance as its predecessors.

And yet, it also might be the rare "The Good Wife" spin-off to stumble out of the gate. Preston is a talented actress with top-notch credits to her name, including "Claws" and "True Blood." But "The Good Wife" and "The Good Fight" benefited from well-known actresses at the top of the call sheet: "ER" star Juliana Marguiles and Emmy winner Christine Baranski. Preston doesn't immediately ring a bell for many viewers; she's a classic case of "Hey, it's that actress!" That might prove a hindrance in bringing franchise fans to the table. But Preston and Pierce are a dynamic combo, and "The Good Fight" proved that the "Good Wife" vibe could transfer to other series. Still, it remains to be seen if "Elsbeth" will give the Kings a series hat trick.

There's a lot of potential in the ABC comedy "High Potential." The series, a remake of a French series called "High Potential Intellectual," is produced by Drew Goddard of "Lost" fame and stars Kaitlin Olsen from "It's Always Sunny of Philadelphia" as a single mom whose exceptional mental skills give police detective Daniel Sunjata an assist in solving baffling crimes. Deadline singled out the series as the only pilot slated for production by ABC prior to its upfront, which is a presentation of new shows to media and advertisers.

It's possible that "High Potential" will deliver for ABC, but there's just as much chance for it to tank. The premise is cute — sharp mom teams with straight-laced cop to foil bad guys — but it could also play as broad or cheesy if not handled with smarts. Olsen is unquestionably funny on "Philadelphia," but she hasn't had much success in carrying a series: her previous solo effort, "The Mick," sank after two seasons. And Sunjata, though a versatile actor, has found more traction as a recurring player on shows like "Grey's Anatomy" than as a lead on short-lived series like "Graceland." Goddard's track record carries a lot more weight — in addition to "Lost," he also wrote and/or produced for "Alias," "The Good Place," and "Daredevil," so he might be the factor that carries "High Potential" past cancellation.

Among the slate of series that Chip and Joanna Gaines' Magnolia Network is developing for Max is "Human vs. Hamster," which the company described (via Variety) as a "light and irreverent competition show." The title essentially spells out the spectacle: viewers get to see people and hamsters face off in similar competitions to determine, as the Magnolia Network press release noted, "who is the superior species." And yes, the hamster challenges are size-appropriate, so don't expect to see hamsters running through human-sized obstacle courses or bench-pressing 100-pound weights. That's just cruel.

It's easy to see how "Human vs. Hamster" went to series. It has a catchy title that immediately suggests the prospect of a weird spectacle: something between a carnival act and a TikTok challenge. Both are satisfying in their own way, albeit in short bursts, and usually don't involve animals forced to carry out acts they don't understand. Will audiences tune in to see humans face off against cuddly classroom pets week after week? Well, as such blink-and-you'll-miss-it precedents as the Fox special "Man vs. Beast" or 2019's "Man Vs. Bear" suggest, they probably won't.

AMC's "Nautilus" made headlines in 2023 when the Australian-lensed series, commissioned by Disney+, was scuttled after filming was completed as part of the network's cost-cutting measures. The series — an origin story for Captain Nemo, the anti-hero of Jules Verne's enduring science fiction novel "20,000 Leagues Under the Sea" — was an almost absurdly expensive project, estimated to cost approximately $96 million, including $23 million in substantial tax incentives from the Australian government. "Nautilus" was saved from sinking by AMC, which snapped up the show in late 2023.

AMC's audience age demographic skews older and male – stats suggest that 40% of viewers are 55 or older and more than half are men — which may keep "Nautilus" afloat. But does Captain Nemo, a character linked to both 19th century literature and a 1954 Disney feature, still resonate with audiences? Vintage-minded adventure series don't seem to have much play unless they're set in Westeros, and the price tag needed to bring such visions to life has already proved prohibitive for "Nautilus."

"The Gentlemen" proved that the crime comedy-dramas which director Guy Ritchie has been making since 1998's "Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels" have staying power. The 2019 film generated more than $115 million worldwide, and has now spawned a spin-off series for Netflix. The TV "Gentlemen" stars Theo James as a young man who discovers that his father's estate is part of the cannabis empire overseen in the feature by Matthew McConaughey (who is not, as of yet, slated to appear in the series). Ritchie, who produced and co-wrote the series in addition to directing its first two episodes, filled out his cast with great players: Kaya Scodelario, Joely Richardson, Ritchie vet Vinnie Jones, and "Better Call Saul" alum Giancarlo Esposito.

Capturing the energy and irreverence of Ritchie's films appears to be the biggest challenge for "The Gentlemen." They're brimming with eclectic characters and eccentric plot turns — ideal for a two-hour feature, but harder to maintain over eight episodes. There's also the fact that "The Gentlemen" is Ritchie's umpteenth take on his hyper-caffeinated U.K. crime stories, which may not stand many more iterations. Time will tell if the series is doomed as a result.

What has the potential to lure in more viewers than a medical drama? A medical drama with a doctor who also has a baffling health condition to up the stakes. That's what Fox and Sony Pictures Television have with "Doc," a drama based on a wildly popular Italian series called "Doc — Nelle tue mani" ("In Your Hands"). The American take changes the gender of the doctor from male to female but otherwise preserves the basic premise: a health professional suffers a brain injury that wipes out her memories of the previous eight years, and must rebuild both her career and her family life.

"Doc" has a chance to be a hit: it's a compelling idea and in the right hands, might make for gripping television. Barbie Kligman, who serves as both writer and showrunner for "Doc," might be that person — she has vast experience as a writer and producer on medical shows like "Private Practice" and "Code Black," and helped to earn five seasons for the reboot of "Magnum P.I." But the majority of her shows are also heavily formulaic — audiences don't tune into "FBI" or "Magnum" or "CSI: NY" for the nuanced storytelling. A wait-and-see approach might be best before making an appointment with "Doc."

In addition to "Wild Cards," The CW picked up a second scripted series from Canada's CTV to air as part of its 2024 broadcast lineup. "Sight Unseen" is a sort of crime drama cross-pollinated with a medical series: newcomer Dolly Lewis is a homicide detective who is left nearly blind after an accident that also kills her partner. She returns to the job with the help of an agoraphobic seeing-eye guide (Agam Darshi), who steers her via a hidden camera.

It's a novel idea, for sure, but also one that needs to be handled with subtlety. The tech element is unique — and according to the show's press release, based on the experiences of one of its co-creators — but the producers need to lean heavily on the human element to avoid any whiff of gimmick. They may be able to avoid that pitfall — John Fawcett, who produced and/or directed for "Orphan Black" and "The Man in the High Castle," performs similar duties on "Sight Unseen" — but maintaining that tone could also prove to be a challenge.

Hulu snapped up "Standing By," a new animated comedy-fantasy from Dan Levy of "Schitt's Creek" and film/TV/music director Ally Pankiw, who also served as story editor for two seasons of that celebrated series. "Standing By" is a sort of workplace comedy about guardian angels and the off-kilter people they oversee; Levy and Pankiw have amassed an impressive voice cast for the show, including David Tennant, Glenn Close, Samira Wiley, and Levy himself.

Bento Box Entertainment also has a hand in "Standing By," and as previously mentioned for "Grimsburg," their brand of animated comedy has a hit-and-miss track record. While Levy and Pankiw's track record is pretty untouchable — "Schitt's Creek" remains a favorite, and Pankiw has directed episodes of well-loved series like "The Great," "Black Mirror," and "Shrill" — guardian angels are an unwieldy subject on which to hang what is undoubtedly an edgy, adult-minded series ("Touched by an Angel" looms large). The end result might prove us wrong, but might also sink without a trace.

The CBS medical drama "The Pact" draws upon the real-life experiences of three childhood friends — George Jenkins, Rameck Hunt, and Sampson Davis — who returned to their homes in inner city New Jersey to help their community by opening a medical center. Their experiences, detailed in the book "The Pact: Three Young Men Make a Promise and Fulfill a Dream," were brought to CBS by its production venture with the NAACP, which also set up the police drama "For Justice" with the Eye Network. Admittedly, everything about "The Pact" smacks of what was known as Prestige TV in the 2000s: a medical drama with a socio-political edge and a connection to one of the longest-running and most acclaimed American civil rights organizations.

Will that be enough to attract audiences? Again, it all boils down to approach. An earnest show that balances storytelling with moral explorations might hold viewers' attention: "The Wire" is a perfect example, though it was never a ratings magnet. Stories that feel preachy, cliched, or overwrought in terms of emotion will quickly sink any ambitions on the part of the producers of "The Pact."

The Fox drama "Rescue: High Surf" has two admittedly significant things going for it: its executive producer is former "ER" showrunner John Wells, who returns to network TV for the first time since "Southland" aired from 2009 to 2010 on NBC (it moved to TNT for the next four seasons). The new series, which follows the lives of heavy-water lifeguards on the North Shore of O'ahu, will also benefit from the natural production value afforded by tropical vistas and tanned, buff bodies in motion.

Yet "Rescue: High Surf" appears to be another toss-up. Wells and series creator Matt Kester have proven track records, but as mentioned, Wells has been out of network TV for over a decade, and his previous collaboration with Kester on "Animal Kingdom" was a critical hit but only a modest audience draw for TNT. And shows about lifeguards or set in Hawaii aren't guaranteed hits: "Magnum, P.I." and "Hawaii Five-O" did well but were also established IP. Filming in the Aloha State didn't save Marvel's "Inhumans" or "Doogie Kameāloha, M.D." And aside from "Baywatch," can you recall a single recent series about lifeguards? They may not be as compelling as Wells and Kester believe them to be.

Stop us if you've heard this one before: a series (via Variety) about a "revolutionary, larger-than-life" doctor and his team who tackle the toughest medical cases. You have: that's essentially the premise behind "House M.D." "The Good Doctor," "New Amsterdam," "Heartbeat," and maybe a dozen other medical dramas over the past decade. NBC clearly believes that new material can be mined from this idea with "Dr. Wolf," which stars Zachary Quinto as a neurologist based on Dr. Oliver Sacks, the groundbreaking real-life physician and author whose work inspired the film "Awakenings."

Quinto is a talented actor and deserves more screen time than he's been afforded in recent years, but he hasn't carried a network series since "Heroes" in 2009 (though he was a compelling presence on AMC's "NOS4A2" and FX's "American Horror Story" franchise). The real problem is the medical drama itself: the producers have to dig deep in order to avoid mining the same territory as all the previously mentioned doc dramas. So far, "Dr. Wolf" doesn't seem to stray from that path.

The immediate pros for this revamp of "Matlock" are the presence of Oscar winner Kathy Bates in the title role and the IP power of the original 1986-1995 series, which starred Andy Griffith and remains a syndication staple. Bates is well-liked and remains a go-to for high-profile features, like the recent "Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret," and TV series like the "American Horror Story" franchise and "Feud: Bette and Joan." Landing an actress of her caliber is a win for the new "Matlock," which also has three immediate and very daunting cons.

First and foremost, it's another legal series which appears to follow the basic TV formula: set up the case to let the star do some lawyer-y showboating. Second, the new take on "Matlock" essentially boils down to the equally weary trope of the senior professional showing her younger peers how to do their jobs. And third: reboots haven't fared well in the last few years. The network graveyards are littered with revived IP, and for every success like "Night Court" or "Frasier," there are plots filled with the remains of new takes on "The Twilight Zone," "Perry Mason," "Saved By the Bell," "Melrose Place," and so on.