Fast X Is A Billion Away From Furious 7 (Can It Reach Its Predecessor?)

Vin Diesel is poised to have a great summer 2023 at the box office. He's the voice of Groot in "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3," which is becoming one of the most successful Marvel films in the post-pandemic era, and he's the star of "Fast X." The latest installment of the "Fast & Furious" franchise crossed the $500 million threshold at the box office this past weekend, proving there's still plenty of gas left in the tank for this film series. Of course, it's also the "Fast & Furious" movie carrying the largest budget of $340 million, so it needs to make much more money to recoup its costs.

The question is just how far this behemoth can go. Can it reach the heights set by the highest-grossing movie in the franchise, namely 2015's "Furious 7," which brought in $1.5 billion? "Fast X" will need a full billion dollars to surpass it, and while the nitro button obviously still works in getting plenty of people out to theaters, it's unlikely to get there.

"Fast X," which opened on May 19, still has ample time to make a ton more money. However, there are numerous factors that allowed "Furious 7" to ascend the box office hierarchy to become one of the highest-grossing movies of all time that "Fast X" just doesn't have going for it.

The "Fast & Furious" movies always did well at the box office, but "Fast Five" took things to another level. The series pretty much changed from relatively down-to-earth street racers to super spies. That movie reignited the franchise at the box office, but nothing has since come close to the financial success of "Furious 7," and it's easy to understand why.

Paul Walker, who played Brian O'Connor throughout the series, tragically died in November 2013 in the middle of production. He had reportedly finished filming 80% of his scenes, and his brothers, Cody and Caleb, stepped in to help finish filming the rest. As a result, the movie ends with Brian retiring and driving off into the sunset. It's hard not to attribute some of the success of "Furious 7" to the tragedy that occurred behind the scenes, with plenty of people likely rushing to the theater to see his final film role.

Phil Contrino, vice president and chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, told Business Insider that Walker's death most certainly played a part in the film's success: "Its success at the box office, many people are going to see that as a tribute to Paul Walker, and what he brought to the franchise and they're going to show up for that reason." He even said people who haven't seen every "Fast & Furious" movie likely showed up for this one specifically to see Walker's last performance. And it's hard to argue with the data, allowing the franchise to reach a milestone it hasn't come close to since.

The next highest-grossing "Fast & Furious" movie is the follow-up to "Furious 7" — "The Fate of the Furious." That movie took in $1.2 billion at the box office, likely still riding high off the success of its predecessor. But those are the only two "Fast & Furious" films to break the billion-dollar threshold. It's a fairly steep drop down from there, with the third highest-grossing entry being "Fast and Furious 6" at $789 million. "Fast X" will be lucky to make it into that camp, as the cinematic landscape has changed significantly over the last eight years. 

For starters, society still exists in a post-COVID-19 world. Plus, streaming has expanded significantly in the last few years, with many people opting to wait until a film is available on streaming before checking it out. It's easy to see a scenario where Universal Pictures puts "Fast X" on Peacock at some point over the summer, and most people will be fine watching it at home, especially given the lukewarm response the movie received from critics. 

"Furious 7" benefitted substantially from what went on behind the scenes. The franchise was able to ride that success over the next few installments, but it's obvious this is a franchise that tends to keep things in the $700 million range. "Fast X" will likely end up closer to "F9: The Fast Saga" than "Furious 7," but perhaps there will be a greater boost as the series rockets toward its final two films.