Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Debuts At Box Office With $15.5 Million

"Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" is off to a solid start at the box office.

After Tom Cruise gave audiences the cinematic experience of a lifetime with last year's "Top Gun: Maverick," all eyes immediately shifted to his latest "Mission: Impossible" film. The seventh entry in the long-running spy series, "Dead Reckoning" is setting a new standard for Cruise, giving the actor one of his best-reviewed films to date. Looper critic Dominic Griffin was in awe of the film's action sequences and Cruise's big-screen presence, writing, "If Ethan is the living manifestation of destiny, then Cruise is the same, but for the spirit of cinema." Audiences are in love with the film as well, giving it a coveted A CinemaScore — the same rating 2018's "Fallout" received.

Thanks to the goodwill he raked in from the Oscar-nominated "Maverick" and positive reviews, Cruise's "Dead Reckoning Part One" is off to a great start at the box office. Variety reports that the film has debuted to $15.5 million at the domestic box office. This number includes the $7 million haul from Tuesday previews. Note that the film also had special fan events throughout the nation on both Sunday and Monday. Deadline says that the receipts from the fan events aren't included in the preview numbers.

With a $15.5 million mid-week debut, industry pundits suggest that the film is set to have a debut north of $60 million during the traditional three-day weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), and a potential five-day haul of $85 million. Early estimates can always shift and they likely will as walkups during the weekend manifest. If all goes well, there's a chance that Cruise's latest cinematic crusade could open to $100 million, emerging as a franchise best.

For some, it's difficult to ignore how "Dead Reckoning Part One" boasts a muted debut. "Fallout" debuted to $22 million back in 2018, a number that included $6 million in previews. To date, "Fallout" is the highest-grossing "Mission: Impossible" film, with a domestic total of $220 million. During its three-day traditional opening weekend, "Fallout" raked in $61 million — a franchise best. While "Dead Reckoning" is on track to beat those numbers, it's not by much. This is still a great opening weekend, just not the ideal one, especially for a franchise that continues to reach new heights after each subsequent entry. 

Then again, it's important to note that "Dead Reckoning Part One" is dealing with a week-long debut, which kicked off on Sunday in some cities. What initial numbers confirm is that the franchise hasn't lost its goodwill with fans, but they don't necessarily suggest growth. Viewers should keep an eye out for weekend numbers, which will dictate just how successful "Dead Reckoning" can be. The "Mission: Impossible" franchise has never opened huge at the box office, and a $100 million debut seemed extremely far-fetched until Tom Cruise delivered the $1.4 billion grossing "Top Gun: Maverick" last year. But it's certain: Ethan Hunt, the lead protagonist of the "Mission" franchise, is no Maverick at the box office. 

If weekend numbers are solid, and audiences show up to watch the film in PLF (Premium Large Format) screens, a $100 million debut is possible, but $80 – $90 million seems more likely. In a perfect world, a $15.5 million debut would have seemed like a godsend for the franchise. But this is a world where "Oppenheimer" and "Barbie" are set to debut next week, stunting Cruise's growth at the box office.

It's no secret that "Oppenheimer" and "Barbie," the double feature of the century will stop "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" in its tracks. With "Oppenheimer" taking over IMAX screens, and "Barbie" painting multiplexes pink with her assortment of PLF screens, "Dead Reckoning" is looking to have a sizable drop next weekend. Luckily, the "Mission: Impossible" films have always weathered the storms brought on by competition, with "Rogue Nation" tactfully handling the debut of "Straight Outta Compton," and "Fallout" fending off "The Meg."

After "Oppenehimer" and "Barbie" debut, audiences will more than likely return to one of the best-reviewed "Mission: Impossible" films, especially if it returns to IMAX once the Christopher Nolan film completes its three-week run. Beyond that, "Dead Reckoning" is more of an international play — remember over 70% of the haul brought in by "Fallout" was from foreign markets.

Overseas, "Dead Reckoning" is playing as well as it can. Industry analyst Luiz Fernando tweets that film is making a sizable impact in South Korea, one of Tom Cruise's largest markets. The film debuted in the country at $1.3 million, on par with its first-day "Top Gun: Maverick" haul. Over in India, an emerging market for Cruise, the film had the largest Hollywood opening of the year, per The Indian Express. As a whole, Deadline says that "Dead Reckoning" has what it takes to rake in $160 million internationally this weekend. A global five-day weekend debut is set at $250 million, a number that the film should easily meet this weekend. How far can the film go, especially as it braces the competition? Only time will tell.