Why Blue Beetle's Initial Box Office Numbers Are So Concerning
August looks to be a precarious month at the box office. SAG-AFTRA went on strike in mid-July, preventing actors from promoting upcoming projects. This wasn't necessarily a problem for the likes of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" as ample promotion and interviews were already recorded before the strike started. But August will see how movies fare without much in the way of promotion, and that puts "Blue Beetle" in a tough spot in more ways than one.
As of right now, Deadline reports that "Blue Beetle" is looking at an opening weekend haul of $30 million when it opens on August 18. If it comes within those projections, it may end up being the lowest-grossing opening weekend for a DCEU film that wasn't released during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Right now, that distinction belongs to "Shazam! Fury of the Gods," which brought in $30.1 million on opening weekend. In general, DC films have struggled as of late. Even "The Flash," which was supposed to serve as a course correction to make way for James Gunn's new DC film universe, only brought in $55 million in its first few days.
"Blue Beetle" doesn't have the same name recognition as "The Flash" and doesn't boast the nostalgia factor of bringing back Michael Keaton as Batman. However, it is the first DC film with a Latino lead, so there are naturally expectations associated with the film and a desire to see it perform well so that studios invest more in Latino-driven projects. But "Blue Beetle" may wind up being a victim of circumstance more than anything else.
Is it all bad news for Blue Beetle?
The most recent $30 million opening for "Blue Beetle" is actually an improvement over initial reports. In July, industry insiders suggested a far more feeble opening weekend gross in the range of $12 to $17 million. While that number has nearly doubled, it still shows how DC films are on life support when it comes to theatrical releases. However, "Blue Beetle" doesn't need to be a massive hit on the same scale as some other superhero movies.
"The Flash" had a budget between $200 and $220 million, so its total gross of $268 million is a major disappointment. "Blue Beetle" has a more modest budget of $120 million, so it doesn't need to make as much money to be considered a hit. Still, a domestic opening of $30 million would mean the movie has an uphill battle in turning a profit. Audiences have shown they're far more selective when it comes to what comic book films they see at a theater. Plus, "Blue Beetle" has significant competition. "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" continue being solid performers. Plus, the recently released "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem" gives people another option when they want another comic book adaptation, and that film's received incredible praise.
"Blue Beetle" opens opposite the R-rated "Strays," which is a raunchy comedy about talking dogs. While "Strays" targets adults who want to laugh heartily, "Blue Beetle" should be fun for the whole family with its PG-13 rating. While one can hope "Blue Beetle" will overperform expectations, the trend this year is that superhero movies (with some exceptions) will underperform. "Blue Beetle" is an important film in DC's line-up for what it means in terms of representation, so anyone wanting to support the movie should check it out when it releases in theaters on August 18.