Why Indiana Jones 5 & Mission Impossible 7 Could Lose Millions At The Box Office

Once considered to be surefire hits at the box office, "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" and "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" could potentially lose millions at the box office.

Audiences are eager to return to cinemas, as signalled by the steady growth the box office has had in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to 2020, which saw theatres shutter their doors, the 2023 box office is up by over 250% year to date. With a domestic total north of $6.4 million as of mid-August, the box office is consistently swinging upwards and has already outpaced 2022's haul of $5.1 billion, per BoxOfficeMojo. While cinema owners must be gleaming with joy to see auditoriums packed, studio execs are likely scratching their heads as to why certain projects are bringing in less hauls than expected.

This year's summer box office has shaped up to be one of the most interesting in recent memory, thanks in part to the several disastrous and underwhelming runs certain films have had. While "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" have dominated the cultural conversation, operating as twin flames who propped up one another up at the domestic and international box office, the biggest surprise this year is how "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" and "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" could possibly emerge as bombs for their respective studios. 

Despite being key additions to beloved, critically-acclaimed, and billion-dollar grossing franchises, "Dial of Destiny" and "Dead Reckoning Part One" haven't made much of an impression at the box office, thanks in part to their bloated budgets, which make them some of the most expensive films of all time. While COVID-19 certainly impacted the productions of both projects, it's hard to deny how the cinematic landscape has changed since each respective sequel released their predecessor.

Following the purchase of Lucasfilm in 2012, Disney began to focus its efforts on bringing back the "Star Wars" franchise. Along the way, the House of Mouse dedicated resources to giving "Indiana Jones" a new lease on life after his maligned fourth outing, "The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull." Production on a fifth "Indiana Jones" remained in limbo until the mid 2010s, when Lucasfilm confirmed that Harrison Ford would return as Indy, and franchise steward Steven Spielberg would once again grace the director's chair. Spielberg eventually decided to call it quits on Indy, and a revolving door of writers manifested. 

Things eventually kicked into high gear when "Logan" director James Mangold decided to tackle Jones' fifth adventure, making "Dial of Destiny" the first film in the franchise to not be directed by Spielberg. Production on the time-travel focused entry kicked off in 2021, with filming taking place in Europe and Africa. Variety says that "Dial of Destiny" boasts a budget of around $300 million, which doesn't account for marketing costs — valued at $100 million. With a $300 million budget, likely bloated due to COVID-19 protocols, "Dial of Destiny" is a box office bomb for the ages. The film debuted to $60 million in late June, nearly $40 million less than what "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" brought in during its opening weekend back in 2008. Ultimately, "Dial of Destiny" has grossed over $173 million stateside, making it the lowest-grossing film in the franchise stateside. Thanks to an international haul of $197 million, "Dial of Destiny" boasts a worldwide total of $371 million — a devastating number for a film with a price tag of over $300 million, when factoring in marketing expenses. 

Variety says that Ford's fifth (and likely final) Indy film is on track to lose $100 million for Disney. 

"Indiana Jones" isn't the only franchise in town that's set to lose a massive amount of money. Variety also says that "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One," the seventh entry in Tom Cruise's spy franchise, is on track to lose a considerable chunk of change for Paramount Pictures. While "Dial of Destiny" began filming when assured protocols were put in place to reduce exposure and infections, "Dead Reckoning Part One" was one of the few projects forced to halt production in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Originally set to roll cameras in early 2020, filming began in September of that year, with production concluding in 2021 after several pauses related to local restrictions and positive COVID-19 cases. 

Many will likely remember the now-iconic leaked recording of Cruise chastising crew members on the film's set for not following COVID-19 protocols which went viral, establishing how serious the franchise star was about the film's success. "We are the gold standard," Cruise said in the recording obtained by The Sun. "They're back there in Hollywood making movies because of us!" Paramount certainly had faith in the picture, reluctantly awarding it a budget of nearly $300 million. 

While speaking with Variety, Paramount CEO Brian Robbins candidly discussed how his company was in a "stalemate" with Cruise and director Christopher McQuarrie over the film's budget, which increased due to COVID-19 shutdowns and the creative team's insistence of featuring a submarine in the film. "It was a production issue, and it was about the scope of what was being asked for," Robbins said. Ultimately, the seventh "Mission: Impossible" outing likely won't turn a profit unless it makes over $600 million worldwide, according to Variety. As it stands, Ethan Hunt's latest adventure boasts receipts just over $540 million. 

It goes without saying that "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" suffered at the box office thanks in part to its ballooned budget, but it's important to understand that the film didn't merely disappointment — it bombed. Even prior to the film's release, many were skeptical about what the point was to bring Harrison Ford back, especially with franchise creators Steven Spielberg and George Lucas out of the picture. With Ford being 80 at the time of the film's release, it seemed lubricious to imagine the star in another leading, action-centric role. 

When it came to marketing the film, Disney didn't do a particularly excellent job allocating its reported $100 million promotional budget. Perhaps audiences weren't interested in "Dial of Destiny" thanks to the middling reception the film received at the Cannes Film Festival, where outlets like IndieWire and The Hollywood Reporter criticized James Mangold's take on the famed archaeologist. With negative reviews dominating the conversation a month before the film's release, it stands to reason that potentially curious audience members were ready to reject the flick. 

Those who did show up for the $60 million opening weekend gave the film a mediocre B+ CinemaScore. While higher than the B CinemaScore that "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" received in 2008, that film had genuine momentum behind it — grossing over $785 million worldwide. After "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" soured the "Indy" brand, and with no cultural footprint over the last decade, it's surprising that Disney thought a $300 million "Indiana Jones" film was a worthwhile idea. In a world where legacy sequels are common, Disney seems to have forgotten that Spielberg already made one with "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," effectively rendering "Dial of Destiny" a moot nostalgic play. 

"Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" is the most expensive film in the franchise and it seems warranted. The near three-hour-long film is filled to the brim with intense action sequences and stunts, making it one of the most compelling entries in the "Mission: Impossible" franchise — at least on paper. The film debuted to $55 million stateside, and has thus far grossed a total shy of $165 million. As summer begins to wrap up, it's all but unlikely that Ethan Hunt's (Tom Cruise) most impossible mission yet will cross over $200 million, a total which 2018's "Fallout" casually passed during its sixth weekend. Internationally, the film is underperforming per "Mission: Impossible" standards, boasting a total of $376 million, with China leading with a $45 million+ haul. 

While "Fallout" grossed over $786 million, "Dead Reckoning" is in limbo thanks to a sub $550 million gross, requiring $600 million to boast a profit, per Variety. Why is "Dead Reckoning Part One" not living up to the franchise's high expectations? A number of factors are at play but it's clear that reception has nothing to do with. "Part One" boasts an A CinemaScore and some of the best reviews the franchise has ever received. 

Despite that, the film's mid-July release didn't do it any favors, as the film clashed with the box office phenomenon that was "Barbenheimer." Both films robbed "Dead Reckoning Part One" of an eager audience and its ability to perform in PLF (Premium Large Format) auditoriums, cutting away the possibility to rake in on higher ticket prices. It also faced significant competition from the controversial "Sound of Freedom," which has grossed more than the Cruise-starrer domestically. If "Dead Reckoning" had a toned down budget, it would have already boasted a modest profit by now. 

With "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" and "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One," we have two films with varying levels of reception and fandom that are flopping, thanks in part to their budgets. Both could potentially lose millions for their respective studios, signaling that IP isn't the sure-fire bet it once used to be at the box office. While the box office failure of "Dial of Destiny" may not be surprising in hindsight, Disney likely thought the fifth "Indiana Jones" outing would at least be profitable, especially when compared to the $780 million+ total that "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" brought forth. But audiences clearly rejected Disney's second "Indy" legacy sequel, all but confirming that "Indiana Jones" doesn't have the same brand appeal that it once did. 

"Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning — Part One" may breakeven if it crosses $600 million, though it seems unlikely. If Paramount Pictures had taken a more strategic approach with the Tom Cruise film's release date, it's likely that the seventh film would have boasted receipts north of $700 million. Unfortunately, it looks like Cruise's latest is a loser. 

With the COVID-19 pandemic in the rearview mirror, Hollywood has to take a closer look at its inflated budgets and determine if certain projects are genuinely worth the risk. Just this year, audiences rejected several films, turning "The Flash," "Haunted Mansion," and "Fast X" into box office disappointments. With lower budgets, films don't have to reach crazy high, record-breaking benchmarks. In 2023, China is not a major player at the box office, and audiences have proven that they have the patience to wait for films to hit streaming. Here's hoping that "Dial of Destiny" and "Dead Reckoning" find an audience when they hit their studio's respective streaming services.