Aquaman 2's Box Office Won't Suffer The Shazam Curse

"Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" will likely make waves at the box office, succeeding where 2023's other DC films have failed. 

It's no surprise that DC is in dire straits right now. Following several box office bombs and underperformers, the studio has decided to call it curtains on their current "cinematic universe," paving the way for James Gunn and Peter Safran to lead the franchise in a new direction. Because Gunn and Safran were appointed as DC bosses earlier this year, though, it left 2023's already planned slate in a peculiar position: this year's output, which included "Shazam! Fury of the Gods," "The Flash," "Blue Beetle," and finally "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom," are projects which essentially have minimal influence on the future DCU. 

Cinemagoers picked up on this, blatantly rejecting the second "Shazam!" flick. The film wrapped up its theatrical run with a mere $133 million — barely outpacing its modest $125 million budget. The sequel's numbers were surprising considering the debut film starring Zachary Levi as the cheery hero made over $360 million back in 2019. The drop between the first "Shazam!" and "Fury of the Gods" is quite damning, illustrating just how much goodwill DC has lost with the general public, and the amount of indifference that its films have generated — a sentiment confirmed with "The Flash" barely grossing $108 million domestically.

Arthur Curry, though, could turn the tide. DC might just have a winner on its hands with "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom," the sequel to the shared universe's highest-grossing flick thus far. With an impressive premise, visuals that demand a big screen, and a widely beloved lead actor, James Wan's "Aquaman" sequel could very well be the final hurrah for the DC of yesteryear before Gunn and Safran usher in their new regime.

The last few years have been miserable for DC. While DC has delivered a number of bold and exciting stories, like "Zack Snyder's Justice League" and James Gunn's R-rated symphony of chaos "The Suicide Squad," they've seen their finances take a considerable dip. The franchise peaked with 2018's "Aquaman," a film which debuted to a modest $67 million during the days leading up to Christmas in 2018. Despite mixed reviews from critics, who either adored or detested the film's chaotic narrative and abundant use of CGI, audiences were on board with James Wan's Pandora-like take on Atlantis, awarding the film an A- CinemaScore.

To date, "Aquaman" is the highest-grossing film in the DC Extended Universe, standing tall with a $1.1 billion haul. The film has casually outpaced the likes of "Batman v Superman," which failed to reach $1 billion, and 2022's "Black Adam," which had Dwayne Johnson at the helm: the latter film grossed $391 million worldwide, without a China release. As the winter box office approaches, it's difficult to deny the apprehension that comes with "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom." Was the first film lightning in a bottle? And after DC's hot streak of failures, it's logical to assume that "The Lost Kingdom" will falter just like "The Flash."

However, unlike "The Flash," there's genuine excitement behind the Aquaman sequel, thanks in part to how divorced it feels from the larger DC narrative. While "The Flash" and "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" were trying to sell themselves to audiences as the next great story in the overall DC saga, Aquaman does his own thing. Marketing has made it clear: this is two hours of Momoa going crazy, and sometimes, that's enough to compel audiences.

Whether Jason Momoa would like to admit it or not, he's one of the most captivating parts of the DC franchise, and it'll be a damn shame if James Gunn and Peter Safran decide to cast him aside. Thanks to his infectious charm and playful, unintimidating attitude, Momoa has managed to capture the hearts of millions. Now, the actor hasn't (perhaps intentionally) proven himself as a box office draw, considering that a majority of his post-"Aquaman" flicks have been Netflix projects and franchise fare, like this year's "Fast X." Still, despite very little receipts to go by, Momoa is obviously the best part of everything he appears in, with the actor being deemed as the saving grace of "Fast X" thanks to his demented turn as the nefarious and goofy villain Dante.

And when it comes to "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom," audiences are itching to see Momoa return as Arthur Curry, especially because he's only appeared as the aquatic king in cameo capacities over the last few years. The debut trailer for the long-gestating sequel immediately puts the focus on Curry and his exploits, leaning heavily into his relationship with Orm (Patrick Wilson), his half-brother. It's their dynamic that's paving the way for the "Aquaman" sequel to be a box-office success. 

Beyond that, the first "Aquaman" presented something new in terms of worldbuilding. While James Cameron and his merry band of Avatars have since provided audiences with the definitive cinematic take on underwater kingdoms, it was "Aquaman" that dared to first show just how exciting the world of water could be. Director James Wan brilliantly presented the Kingdom of Atlantis as an amalgamation of sci-fi tech and old-school rules, putting forward a vibe that left audiences feeling high and giddy, unlike DC's other, drearier films.

Even if "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" proves to be a disaster at the box office and emerges as a career low for James Wan, there's one thing it'll still be lauded for: its lead performance. Jason Momoa has consistently proven himself as one of Hollywood's most popular leads, a label that can't be extended to his DC colleagues. Unfortunately, the current (or, rather, former) roster of DC heroes just don't have what it takes to bring audiences to cinemas. The failure of "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" can be chalked up to one thing: pure indifference. The box office bomb, which barely managed to recoup its budget (not taking marketing costs into account), will go down as one of the franchise's most surprising misfires. 

The first "Shazam!" was well-liked — it has an A CinemaScore (higher than "Aquaman") and presented itself as a unique, small-stakes, family-driven project in a landscape filled with world-ending superhero flicks, and Zachary Levi was mostly praised for his role as the titular hero. The problem? Momentum wasn't sustained, either within the DC franchise or the media cycle. Levi failed to cameo as Shazam in DC's other projects, and the actor didn't manage to make any new fans on social media. Ultimately, "Fury of the Gods" fizzled, proving that Levi's good looks and big smiles weren't enough to bring audiences in. 

"Black Adam," meanwhile? Dwayne Johnson is great, but he's oversaturated, which is why his long-gestating antihero flick called it curtains before it nabbed $400 million at the box office. If the film had been released in the 2010s, when Johnson was at his peak, it would've been a billion-dollar grosser. 

As far as "The Flash," well, the Ezra Miller situation speaks for itself. 

Unlike the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the DCEU failed to create a cinematic world that feels lived in, cohesive, and connected. Instead, each film has its own pockets of realms and worlds, which feel increasingly disconnected and out of tune with one another. Because of this, so many of the unique worlds in the franchise feel dull and lifeless. For example, the mythos of "Shazam!" feels surprisingly rote, despite how colorful the gods who populate it are. 

Visually, most of the DC films feel monotonous and devoid of any purpose, which is a prime reason why audiences have largely rejected the latest batch of DC films. But "Aquaman" is still remembered for its loud, eye-popping visuals and world-building. That will matter when it comes to the sequel's reception.

When it comes to the visuals of "Aquaman," love it or hate it, it's difficult to deny just how bold and over-the-top they are. From octopuses banging on drums to underwater lasers, "Aquaman" was a sensory overload that demanded to be seen in cinemas. The same sentiment will likely persist for "The Lost Kingdom," a film that seems determined to double down on the eccentricity and chaos of its predecessor. Take a look at this December's slate ("Wonka," "Migration") and it's clear that the new "Aquaman" flick is, by far, the most compelling visual feast of the month. After the success of "Avatar: The Way of Water," it will also be interesting to see if "The Lost Kingdom" can capitalize on that aquatic film's success, bringing in audience members who are typically apprehensive towards superhero projects. 

From a likable lead to an interesting world, and positive feedback from the first film, "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" genuinely has what it takes to break DC's streak of box office failures. Following the back-to-back disappointments that were "Shazam! Fury of the Gods," "The Flash," and "Blue Beetle," James Wan's latest DC flick has the positive momentum that Warner Bros. desperately needs.

While December is relatively packed, "The Lost Kingdom" is one of the few films this crowded winter to appeal to older, male-identifying audiences. A majority of the Christmas slate is dedicated towards children and families, with projects like Illumination's "Migration" and Warner Bros.' very own "Wonka," which is still a huge question mark in terms of profitability and viability. "Aquaman" will definitely find an audience with children and teenagers, especially as the Christmas holidays kick off. The first film, which was released on December 21, 2018, debuted with an average $67 million but managed to have strong legs, remaining in the top five until February 2019. While a bulk of the film's profits manifested thanks to international receipts, it's impossible to ignore the competition that "Aquaman" faced stateside thanks to "Mary Poppins Returns" and "Bumblebee," with the latter vying for the same audience as the DC film. 

As far as large-scale, action-oriented blockbusters go, "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" is the only show in town this winter. And with "Spider-Man: No Way Home" and "Avatar: The Way of Water" becoming billion-dollar grossers thanks to similar release dates over the last two years, it's near-guaranteed that "The Lost Kingdom" will become one of this year's biggest films. 

Now, can Wan and Momoa's sophomore flick crack a billion? It's complicated.

While the box office seas are promising for "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom," it seems that the film will have trouble hitting a billion dollars. 

Unfortunately, the DC brand is tainted, and that's putting it lightly. Their 2023 slate has failed to turn a profit, with "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" and "The Flash" being some of the biggest box office disappointments in recent memory. Even the near $400 million-grossing "Black Adam" couldn't break even, with DC not having a hit since ... well, 2019's "Shazam!" and 2018's "Aquaman." Since then, the superhero landscape has considerably shifted, with so-called "superhero fatigue" setting in — even Marvel has had its financial disappointments thanks to "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" and "Eternals." 

And a while of number of genre-defining films like "The Batman" and "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" have come and gone, no superhero film has grossed a billion since 2021's "Spider-Man: No Way Home." Can "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" break the now-difficult barrier? Doubtful, considering audience apprehension around DC. 

What's extremely likely is that James Wan's latest will mimic the run of this year "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse," grossing just shy of $700 million. Domestically, the film won't hit $300 million like its predecessor, but it could touch $200 million. Note that this domestic number is dramatically higher than anything DC has been able to conjure up this year, stateside. If the sequel gets a China release (the first grossed nearly $300 million in the Middle Kingdom), then we're looking at a $400 to $500 million international run. Otherwise, South Korea and markets in Latin America will be forced to do heavy lifting. 

Whatever the sequel makes, it should be profitable, wrapping up the chaotic DC Extended Universe with a tepid win.