Aquaman 2's Box Office Opening Is Shaping Up To Be Another Superhero Disaster

Early signs say "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" could flounder at the box office. 

Fresh off the divisive "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice" and the maligned theatrical cut of "Justice League," DC's theatrical slate found a boon in 2018's "Aquaman." Directed by horror-turned-action junkie James Wan and starring the ever-charismatic Jason Momoa in the titular role, the film was a huge question mark until it hit cinemas that holiday season. Aquaman had been one of the most ridiculed characters in DC's slate, and many wondered if a movie starring him could succeed.

Against the odds, "Aquaman" turned into DC's greatest success, grossing a whopping $335 million domestically despite facing adequate competition from family-friendly pics like "Bumblebee" and "Mary Poppins Returns." Thanks to a stellar, nearly $300 million showing from China, Wan's film wracked up $1.14 billion worldwide. But things aren't looking too good for the long-gestating sequel, "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom." Box Office Pro has shared its opening weekend prediction, suggesting a domestic haul between $32 million and $42 million. The movie opens on December 22 alongside Illumination's animated comedy, "Migration." 

Box Office Pro's long-range forecast for "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" isn't optimistic either, with the outlet suggesting it will wrap up its domestic run anywhere between a mediocre $105 million to a decent $168 million. With the theatrical landscape shifting and audiences less than enthused with superhero offerings, it's possible that the $205 million-budgeted picture could be another disaster for DC. 

Early signs say that "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" will be another superhero misfire. In 2023, this has become common at the box office, and the chips are stacked against James Wan's sequel. Box Office Pro's predictions are just that, but they're rooted in reality. This year has been disastrous for comic book adaptations, with DC seeing multiple disappointments. In March, "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" grossed just $132 million worldwide, failing to crack $60 million domestically. 

Then there's "The Flash," which has emerged as one of the biggest box office bombs of all time. A disastrous $108 million domestic haul and international postings worth $158 million couldn't save the film, budgeted at $300 million. Even the well-liked "Blue Beetle" called it quits with $128 million worldwide. Especially considering some lackluster box office results from Marvel this year, an argument can be made casual viewers have lost interest in this genre.

In the years since "Aquaman" dominated cinemas, the titular character hasn't had much cultural impact besides brief cameos in projects like "Peacemaker." Box Office Pro also notes that pre-sales aren't healthy, pacing behind the $390 million-grossing "Black Adam." It certainly doesn't help that the sequel has been mired in controversy, but it's unlikely toxic conversations surrounding casting and rumored poor "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" test screenings have penetrated the mainstream. 

"Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" could be a box office disaster, ending the current DC timeline with a whimper. But it's important to remember that fate initially wasn't on the first "Aquaman" film's side. Yes, the film had decent projections bolstered by solid presales, but it only opened to a decent $67 million, facing notable competition from other family-friendly franchise fare. What got the film to $335 million domestically was the legs that manifested due to solid word of mouth. With an A- CinemaScore, "Aquaman" was a serviceable Christmas offering that didn't leave the top five on the box office charts until its eighth weekend. 

While the superhero genre might not be as prosperous or exciting as it once was, "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" has the benefit of being the only major action blockbuster offering this Christmas. Audiences love spending the holidays with action films (2021's "Spider-Man: No Way Home," 2022's "Avatar: The Way of Water"), and there's not much competition at the multiplex this winter in that department. This should allow the sequel to breathe and find an audience over the Christmas break. And if it's well-received, casual viewers could spill over, helping make "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" an average box office player. 

It's unlikely that the film will gross over $1 billion, but early projections could prove conservative, with this perhaps reaching somewhere around $500 million worldwide.

"Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" floats into cinemas on December 22.