Could The Oscar For Best Picture Predict Whether Trump Will Win The 2024 Election?

In 2012, The Huffington Post ran a piece detailing how the Golden Globes and Oscars can help predict who will win the presidency during election years. It shakes out somewhat accurately like this: If the winners for best motion picture (drama) at the Golden Globes and best picture at the Academy Awards are the same film, a Republican wins. If the two movies are different, a Democrat takes the White House. With 2024 being an election year, what does this mean for the current election?

The big prize at the 2024 Golden Globes went to "Oppenheimer." That would suggest if "Oppenheimer" wins best picture at the Oscars, which it's heavily favored to do, coming in with 13 nominations total, a Republican will win this year. There's presently no nominee for the Republican party, but there's a strong assumption it will end up being Donald Trump, who has already won primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa. Unless Nikki Haley makes some big moves, Trump will be the nominee, leading to a rematch with Joe Biden come November.

There have been only a few exceptions over the last six decades. In 1976, "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" won both the Globe and Oscar for best picture, but Democrat Jimmy Carter won the presidency. More recently, 2016 had the Golden Globe winner "The Revenant," and on Oscar night, "Spotlight" took home best picture, yet Republican Trump won. For the latter, one could argue that Hillary Clinton did get more votes than Trump while ultimately failing to secure the electoral college. It's by no means a certainty, but the trend would imply an "Oppenheimer" win would usher in a second Trump term.

It's vital to stress there's no scientific backing for this trend. There's no reason why the Oscar winner would influence voters to go in a certain direction, but it is an intriguing trend, even if there have been outliers. Obviously, "Oppenheimer" could win best picture at the Academy Awards with Joe Biden still getting a second term. But if the trend persists and an "Oppenheimer" win heralds Trump becoming president again, the result could be devastatingly foreboding.

"Oppenheimer" ends with the titular character, played by Cillian Murphy, realizing he's invented the power to destroy the world, which is now in the hands of some of the most dangerous and volatile people imaginable — politicians. This is exemplified in the movie's final moments when J. Robert Oppenheimer declares, "When I came to you with those calculations, we thought we might start a chain reaction that would destroy the entire world. ... I believe we did." Over the years, Donald Trump has brought up using nuclear bombs in various capacities. Some have been ridiculous, like when he reportedly floated the idea of nuking hurricanes to prevent them from reaching the United States. In a far more unsettling case, Trump stated that he wouldn't flat-out reject the idea of using nuclear weapons in Europe. 

There's little doubt Trump is exactly the kind of person Oppenheimer feared would get ahold of this technology, especially because there's a non-zero chance he could actually use them during a second term. An "Oppenheimer" win on Oscar night could predict the beginning of the end, or perhaps it will be one of the few exceptions to the rule. In either case, it may be best to play it safe and hope for a "Barbie" upset come Oscar night.