Knives Out 3 Illustrates A Big New Hollywood Problem
As of this writing, news keeps breaking about Rian Johnson's third "Knives Out" film, titled "Wake Up Dead Man," more or less constantly. After Josh O'Connor ("Challengers," "The Crown") and Cailee Spaeny ("Priscilla," "Civil War") joined the ensemble cast — alongside Daniel Craig, who's set to return as the Southern-fried detective Benoit Blanc — it was announced that Andrew Scott, beloved star of "Ripley" and "Fleabag," "Scandal" lead Kerry Washington, and Hollywood legend Glenn Close were also tapped for the next whodunit. Perhaps the most confusing thing about "Wake Up Dead Man," though, is its release; the movie is set to stream exclusively on Netflix in 2025.
In this day and age, where streamers are quietly taking over the entire entertainment landscape — and sort of re-inventing the concept of cable along the way by combining different streamers into packages — it feels like theatrical releases are falling by the wayside, especially after COVID-19 decimated the moviegoing experience in 2020. (This is to say nothing of the constant presence of VOD, or "video on demand.") Still, there's something to unpack here, which is that Netflix inked a deal with Johnson after the first "Knives Out" film for two sequels. The reason? The overwhelming financial success of the original 2019 movie. So why is it only coming to Netflix rather than being given a chance to crush the box office like the first movie? This actually speaks to a larger problem ... and a disturbing studio trend. Frankly, it's a mystery worthy of Benoit Blanc himself — why are studios releasing movies that could become enormous box-office hits exclusively on streamers?
The first Knives Out film was a major box office success — and Glass Onion barely got a chance to reap the same rewards
Let's look back at the first "Knives Out" movie, the murder mystery named for Radiohead track that absolutely blew audiences away in the fall of 2019. Before anyone knew much of anything about the novel coronavirus — or how it would affect the world at large before long — audiences flocked to theaters for Rian Johnson's first film after "Star Wars: The Last Jedi." The movie borrowed star Daniel Craig from the "James Bond" franchise before his final installment "No Time to Die" and cast him as Benoit Blanc, a sharp private detective with a wild Southern accent who's asked to investigate the death of successful mystery novelist Harlan Thrombey (Christopher Plummer), is aided by Harlan's longtime nurse Marta Cabrera (Ana de Armas).
The film was, to put it lightly, an overwhelming critical and commercial success. It ultimately earned a "certified fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes with a "fresh" percentage of 97%, and it was praised by the industry and audiences alike. Perhaps more importantly for studios, though, was its box office haul; on a modest $40 million budget, the film made an astounding $312.9 million worldwide. It's not surprising that Netflix snapped up a potential Benoit Blanc franchise. What is surprising is that when it came time to release the sequel, "Glass Onion," it only spent one week in theaters, earning $15 million against its $40 million budget before ending up on Netflix just one month later. Now, "Wake Up Dead Man" may not even get a theatrical release. Why do this? Does Netflix hate money?
Recent would-be blockbusters underperformed at the box office, and it's the fault of the studios
In 2024, two movies that seemed destined to become summer blockbusters — Ryan Gosling's love letter to stuntmen "The Fall Guy" and the "Mad Max" prequel "Furiosa" led by Anya-Taylor-Joy — "flopped" at the box office according to reports, so let's invesitgate why, as well as what that has to do with the matter at hand. "The Fall Guy," which had its world premiere at South by Southwest in March of this year, didn't hit theaters in the United States until May 3 and only earned $27.7 million during its opening weekend, which didn't look great contrasted against its $145 million budget (though, to be fair, the movie ended up breaking even). Just a few weeks later, the film ended up available to rent or buy on VOD.
"Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" faced a similar dilemma when it arrived in theaters on the Friday of Memorial Day Weekend; despite overwhelming love for "Mad Max: Fury Road," star Taylor-Joy, and positive reviews from critics, it raked in just over $32.3 domestically (and about the same worldwide, doubling its total) ... creating a narrative that the film was a box office bomb.
If "Furiosa" ends up on VOD in the next few weeks, we'll see a clear pattern illustrated by both this dystopian tale and the delightfully action-packed "The Fall Guy" — which is that audiences have now been trained to stay home and wait for big releases to come to VOD. Moviegoing feels like an inconvenience when you can potentially just wait and watch it on your couch, and that's exactly the problem.
Streaming could kill the theatrical moviegoing experience if studios let it
The summer of 2023 proved that people want to go to the movies for big cultural events, thanks to the one-two punch that came to be known as "Barbenheimer." On July 21 of that year, Greta Gerwig's "Barbie" and Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer," two major cinematic juggernauts, brought people to theaters in droves, and it paid off handsomely for both; "Barbie" handily made a billion dollars at the box office, and "Oppenheimer," a sprawling three-hour biopic and historical drama, ultimately came close to its cohort with $962 million. Despite the fact that audiences were still reeling from the worldwide pandemic, they showed up to see these movies, and neither of them ended up on streaming or VOD for months after their theatrical releases. So let's bring this back to "Wake Up Dead Man," because the film — which won't even come out until 2025 — is an example of Hollywood's latest problem.
There's no question that, after the love shown to both "Knives Out" and "Glass Onion," "Wake Up Dead Man" would be a surefire box office success. Netflix hasn't discussed a theatrical release just yet, but if it gets one at all, it'll likely get the same limited treatment that "Glass Onion" did, which is completely disappointing. Money aside, "Wake Up Dead Man" could be a major moviegoing experience and serve as a cultural touchpoint for 2025. Instead, it'll get the Netflix treatment — it might get a tiny theatrical window before it's unceremoniously shunted onto the streamer until its next big project comes along. It's a shame, because Rian Johnson deserves better. Daniel Craig and the already outstanding cast deserve better. And frankly, moviegoers deserve better too.