Predicting The Biggest Box Office Bombs Of 2025

If there is one thing that the movie industry has learned in recent years, it's that it has become more difficult than ever before to predict whether a film will be successful. Releases that seem like surefire hits can flop spectacularly, while unexpected hits can come seemingly from nowhere and take viewers by storm. Take the absolute box office failure that is the Chris Evans-Dwayne Johnson vehicle "Red One," which will likely end up being one of the biggest box office bombs of 2024 despite being a mega-budget Christmas movie with a stellar cast and unique narrative.

In an era when Hollywood is struggling to find consistent success, it is almost impossible to judge what the next winners and losers will be. There is simply no such thing as a guaranteed box office smash anymore. But that doesn't mean it isn't fun to look ahead and try to predict what films might not make the cut. That doesn't mean we are actively rooting for their demise. It's rather that, for one reason or another, these 2025 movies almost seem destined to miss the mark.

Fresh off his portrayal of rancher John Dutton in the neo-Western TV series "Yellowstone," Kevin Costner decided to create his own new film franchise in the form of "Horizon: An American Saga." Although it is set way before "Yellowstone," around the Civil War period, the first film explored similar themes as a more classical American Western. The actor and director poured more than $30 million of his own money to develop and film the project, recruiting an ensemble cast that includes Sienna Miller, Luke Wilson, Sam Worthington, Danny Huston, and Ella Hunt.

The original plan was for "Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 2" to arrive in cinemas less than two months after its predecessor, in August 2024. However, critics didn't hold back with their disdain for "Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1," which also grossed under $40 million, a dismal performance that led New Line Cinema to push the second film back. It may now arrive sometime in 2025, but even this delay is unlikely to make it a box office success, as interest from the first film just isn't there. Early negative reviews from the festival premiere of "Chapter 2" don't inspire much confidence that the franchise will suddenly turn around either.

The performance of "Deadpool and Wolverine," a movie that brought in more than $1.3 billion, might well have some people believing that the Marvel Cinematic Universe is once again in a healthy place — but that isn't necessarily the case. This film could easily be seen as something of an outlier, as it is very much separate from the MCU as a whole and has its own distinct audience that might not have as much crossover as you'd initially think. That's a problem given that the recent performance of some MCU movies has been pretty poor, with the likes of "The Marvels" and "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" failing to meet financial expectations.

Marvel Studios has several movies and television shows coming out in 2025, including "Captain America: Brave New World" and "The Fantastic Four: First Steps." But despite the rocky history of the "Fantastic Four" franchise in Hollywood, it is "Thunderbolts*" that has us most worried. It lacks the big name stars of the other 2025 MCU movies and is centered largely on lesser-known characters. Fans might want to see what the next chapter holds for Captain America and there has been a lot of anticipation for the integration of Marvel characters that were previously owned by 20th Century Fox into the MCU. So it's likely that if viewers are going to get fatigued and avoid any MCU entry next year, it will be "Thunderbolts*."

After a decade or so of failing to match the heights of the MCU, the DC Extended Universe officially came to an end in 2023 with the release of "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom." With James Gunn now in charge of a refreshed film franchise known as the DC Universe, much of the DCEU is set to be consigned to the dust heap, including Henry Cavill's portrayal of Superman. What that means for viewers is that they'll be getting a brand new version of Superman, this time played by David Corenswet.

While there's a lot of excitement about Gunn's reimagining of the DC movie franchise, it remains to be seen whether it will be a financial success. Almost all of DC's recent live-action releases have been flops, giving the comic book brand a pretty negative reputation with moviegoers that won't inspire a lot of confidence. A reported budget in excess of $360 million also means that "Superman" will have to do really well to be a success and it isn't clear that there's enough appetite for another reboot of this DC character.

Legacy sequels are a seemingly recent phenomena in which classic films from decades ago are revived with a new installment. It makes sense for studios to invest in them, as they are part of an established IP with an established audience who retain a lot of nostalgia for the original movies. Yet they've been something of a mixed bag in terms of success. For every "Top Gun: Maverick" and "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice," there's an "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" and "The Matrix Resurrections."

The chances are that "Dirty Dancing 2" will fall into the second category. Technically the third entry in the series, after the 2004 prequel "Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights," it's been in development for more than four years and faced numerous delays. With a scheduled summer 2025 release window, we still know almost nothing about "Dirty Dancing 2" and exactly who will be part of the cast, outside of the fact that original star Jennifer Grey will return. That likely will not be enough to attract viewers, especially considering that Patrick Swayze — who died in 2009 — will not be in the film.

When the first "John Wick" film was released in 2014, it showed that there was still a big audience for gritty action films with stunning fight sequences. Of course, the movie also reminded Hollywood executives that you don't have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to shoot and market a successful series either. Three sequels followed, including the highly-praised "John Wick: Chapter 4," but that was never likely to be the end of a series that had proven incredibly lucrative for everyone involved.

Several spin-offs have been in development in recent years and the first theatrical project is "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina." Set between the third and fourth entries in the series, it stars Ana de Armas as a ballerina turned assassin. What isn't clear, though, is whether there is any real interest in a "John Wick" movie without Reeves taking up the starring role (the "Ballerina" trailer does confirm that John Wick turns up in the film). This new film has also faced a troubled production. Delayed from June 2024, reports suggest it has been almost entirely reshot with Chad Stahelski taking over from Len Wiseman — a move that doesn't exactly scream good things for the project as a whole. 

After winning the Academy Award for best picture in 2020 for his film "Parasite," director and writer Bong Joon-ho was always likely to be in demand by major Hollywood studios. Warner Bros. Pictures eventually snagged the chance to release his next project, an adaptation of Edward Ashton's novel "Mickey7" that is set for release in April 2025. "Mickey 17" stars Robert Pattinson in the lead role of Mickey Barnes, an expendable worker who is regenerated into a new body after each death and is forced to confront a fresh version of himself when he accidentally survives a supposedly fatal event.

The jury is out on whether "Mickey 17" will have anything like the same sort of success as Bong's previous work. For one, it has a budget that is almost 14 times the amount it cost to make "Parasite," a sum of money that makes the chances of the film being a financial hit much harder. It is also a very different kind of movie and not something that fans of the filmmaker might be expecting. There have also been rumors of friction between the studio and director, with claims that executives want "Mickey 17" to be a more audience-friendly viewing experience.

There's an argument to be made that there hasn't been a proper hit in terms of original animated movies since 2017's "Coco." There have been plenty of success stories, but they've either been sequels, prequels, or based on already existing properties like "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." Various Disney and Pixar releases that have been brand new stories have failed to make any impact, with the list of failures including "Soul," "Wish," and "Encanto."

So while Pixar set new records in 2024, with "Inside Out 2" bringing in more than $1.6 billion, there aren't a lot of reasons to be optimistic that 2025's "Elio" will be anything other than a bomb. Not helping the cause is the fact that "Elio" is also a science fiction movie, as sci-fi animated releases have generally either disappointed at the box office or been outright flops. Just look at "Treasure Planet" and "The Iron Giant" as good examples of this. With all of that in mind, the future doesn't look particularly bright for this Pixar movie. 

The "Frankenstein" franchise hasn't exactly been relevant for several decades, but that hasn't stopped Maggie Gyllenhaal from writing and directing an adaptation of the 1935 film "Bride of Frankenstein." Christian Bale and Jessie Buckley are set to play Frankenstein's monster and his bride, with Penélope Cruz, Peter Sarsgaard, and Annette Bening in supporting roles. Uniquely, "The Bride!" is a musical that will feature large dance numbers that are intended to appeal to adults and younger audiences alike.

"The Bride!" is also set to face some tough competition in the horror genre. It will be released at around the same time as both the untitled fourth "The Conjuring" film and the highly anticipated "Saw XI," meaning it will face tough competition and audiences might not want to see three horror films in the same month. The biggest problem, though, is simply that a horror musical based on a very old black and white movie is only ever likely to have niche appeal. With a rather large budget of $80 million, there's little room for "The Bride!" to perform well financially unless it is a major hit.

If all goes according to plan, 2025 will be the year that the "I Know What You Did Last Summer" franchise returns to cinema with what is a fourth untitled entry in the series. Ignoring the direct-to-video film "I'll Always Know What You Did Last Summer," it acts as a sequel to the 1998 slasher "I Still Know What You Did Last Summer." That may not be a good sign, though, as that sequel actually performed very poorly both commercially and critically, suggesting there aren't any legs in this horror series after the excitement of the initial release.

The film is also coming out in a packed summer schedule that will give it a lot of competition. Based on current release dates, it will be sandwiched between "Superman" and "The Fantastic Four: First Steps," while "Jurassic World Rebirth" and a new musical from Matt Stone and Trey Parker are both set to hit cinema screens in the weeks leading up to its launch. All of that makes it much more difficult for the currently untitled "I Know What You Did Last Summer" to be anything other than a flop.

Scheduled for a June 25, 2025 release, "F1" is a sports drama from "Top Gun: Maverick" director Joseph Kosinski. Real-life Formula One star Lewis Hamilton is producing alongside Jerry Bruckheimer and Brad Pitt — who also stars — while Hans Zimmer is providing the musical score. The film centers around Pitt's character, Sonny Hayes, a former Formula One driver who mentors Damson Idris' Joshua Pearce as he starts his racing career.

There's a lot working against "F1." Racing films like 2019's "Ford v Ferrari" and 2023's "Ferrari" tend not to be big hits and Formula One still only has niche appeal in the U.S. despite making some inroads in recent years. The 2013 film "Rush" only grossed less than $100 million and the highly praised documentary "Senna" earned just a little over $10 million. A reported budget of $300 million won't do the film any favors when it comes to making money either, as it means it will have to make close to $1 billion to be a commercial hit. The filmmakers behind "F1" have denied it has cost that much, but anything even close to that budget is too much for a racing movie that's likely to crash.

Set for release on October 3, 2025, "Michael" is a musical biopic that stars Jaafar Jackson as his late uncle, Michael Jackson. The film follows the King of Pop's life from the early days of the Jackson 5 up to his death in 2009. "Training Day" director Antoine Fuqua is helming the production, based on a script by John Logan of "Skyfall" and "Spectre" fame. 

A budget of more than $155 million, however, will make it difficult for "Michael" to earn a profit. Cracking the musical biography genre is not easy. "Bohemian Rhapsody" was a runaway success, but this involved a much-loved band that is famous in practically every part of the world and had a brilliant performance from actor Rami Malek. Other similar films like "Rocketman" haven't managed to match that, while movies such as "Stardust" and "Nina" were major flops. 

There's also much controversy surrounding Jackson as a subject. The filmmakers have contended that "Michael" will be an unbiased account of his life, but "Leaving Neverland" director Dan Reed felt like they had downplayed the allegations of child sexual abuse after seeing a draft of the script. Much of Jackson's life has also been told before, so it's unclear if there is any demand for a project like this.

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"A Minecraft Movie" is the latest in a long line of video game movie adaptations. Directed by "Napoleon Dynamite" filmmaker Jared Hess, the film will see three normal people transported into the blocky world of "Minecraft," where they encounter a man named Steve (a character from the game) and learn to survive in the strange environment they find themselves in. Jack Black stars as Steve, with Jason Momoa, Emma Myers, and Danielle Brooks also part of the main cast.

There's certainly a chance that this film could do well. After all, it's based on a property that has proven incredibly popular with kids and is well-known all around the world. Yet the odds seem stacked against it. Video game adaptations aren't exactly a safe bet: "Borderlands" showed that these types of films can still bomb spectacularly at the box office, even if there are a few examples of strong performers such as "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." "A Minecraft Movie" doesn't exactly have a strong narrative to focus on either, as the original game is designed for exploration rather than a story-led experience.

"Mission: Impossible" not only firmly established Tom Cruise as an action star but became a highly successful franchise that has lasted almost 30 years. Almost every entry has been a commercial success, but the magic has waned with the most recent installment. "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" grossed around $570 million against a budget of over $290 million. Those aren't exactly great numbers, and Paramount Pictures has obviously been spooked at least a little: the 2025 sequel has dropped the "Part Two" moniker and is now called "Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning."

With a ballooning budget that could exceed 400 million, "Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning" would have to significantly outperform its predecessor and hit the $1 billion dollar mark to be a financial hit. There's every chance that the apparent decline in interest for the franchise could continue with what is being billed as the final outing for Ethan Hunt. Throw in tough competition from live-action remakes of "Lilo & Stitch" and "How to Train Your Dragon," along with the launch of "Jurassic World Rebirth," and it might really be an impossible mission for this sequel to avoid being a dud.

Disney's quest to recreate all of its animated classics — as often soulless live-action adaptations that lack the magic of the originals — continues in 2025 with "Snow White." Helmed by "The Amazing Spider-Man" director Marc Webb, with a script from "Barbie" filmmaker Greta Gerwig and "Vinyl" writer Erin Cressida Wilson, it is described as a reimagining of the 1937 animated landmark "Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs." The cast includes Rachel Zegler as Snow White and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen, alongside Andrew Burnap, Ansu Kabia, and Martin Klebba in supporting roles.

Disney's live-action remakes have been a mixed bag both in terms of box office performance and critical reception. That makes it a toss-up whether "Snow White" will find an audience, especially given that the original came out so long ago. The film has also been embroiled in several controversies leading to unwanted negative attention, some of which arise from the fact that cultural expectations have shifted since the animated release. This has included a backlash to some plot and character changes, as well as a reaction to comments by Zegler about Disney making updates to the story.